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ECON7021 Impact Comparison

Assessment Task Impact Comparison

Assessment Type Research Report

Group or Individual Individual

Weighting 25% of course (100 marks reweighted to 25%)

Word Limit 1,000 words (See inclusions and exclusions on page 10 of this

document.)

Due Date 11 October, 4 pm

Marking Rubric Learn.UQ > Assessment > Impact Comparison (Research

Report) > Impact Comparison - Marking Rubric

Submission Submit your assessment as a Word document via Turnitin at

Learn.UQ > Assessment > Impact Comparison (Research

Report) > Impact Comparison. See submission details on page 12

of this document.

Academic Integrity UQ has strict rules against academic misconduct, including

cheating, plagiarism, colluding and solicitation. You are

responsible for preserving the highest standards of academic

integrity in your work. At your own risk, you may use generative

Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools for Part 1 of the assessment task.

However, you are not permitted to use AI tools for Part 2 or

Part 3. Please read and familiarise yourself with these policies:

Student Code of Conduct and Student Integrity and Misconduct.

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Context

Part 1 of this assessment task tests your understanding of the material covered in Topic 1

and the monetary policy component of Topic 5. By tracking data of the three key

macroeconomic indicators discussed in Topic 1, we can analyse the macroeconomic

performance of a country over time and determine whether the short-run impact of external

shocks and implemented policies, such as monetary policy, align with expectations.

Parts 2 and 3 of the assessment test your understanding of Topics 7, 8 and 9. Topics 7

and 8 covered the IS-LM model for closed economies, and Topic 9 covered the IS*-LM* or

Mundell-Fleming model for small open economies with perfect capital mobility. We can use

these models to determine the expected short-run economic effect of shocks or policy

adjustments.

Task Description

Part 1: ChatGPT Investigation (Around 300 words)

We know generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools can provide inaccurate or incorrect

data and analyses with no references or even fake sources. Still, we asked ChatGPT, a

generative AI tool, to write an essay of 500 words. Table 1, spread over page 3, page 4

and the top half of page 5, provides the prompt we gave ChatGPT and its response

(OpenAI, 2024). You are tasked to critique the essay written by ChatGPT.

Your task is to critique the ChatGPT response and report your findings in around 300

words. To critique the ChatGPT essay, you need to compare the information in the

ChatGPT response in Table 1 to the prompt given to ChatGPT, the Topic 1 and relevant

Topic 5 learning material, UQ requirements for essays, and reliable data and other

reference sources to determine which information is inaccurate, incomplete, or missing.

Refer to the tips on page 5 and the checklist on page 6 to ensure your critique addresses

all relevant aspects.

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Table 1

Prompt and ChatGPT Response

Reference

OpenAI. (2024). ChatGPT [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com/

Prompt

In an essay of 500 words, address the following. Analyse the monetary policy stance of

the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) since 2022 and assess the impact of the relevant

cash rate changes made by the RBA on the Australian macroeconomic performance by

referring to quarterly data of the three key macroeconomic indicators from 2022 until

2024. Indicate whether the RBA should make further changes to the cash rate based on

the latest macroeconomic indicator data.

ChatGPT Response

Analysis of the Monetary Policy Stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

since 2022

Since 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has pursued an active monetary policy

in response to inflationary pressures and changing global economic conditions. The

RBA’s primary tool for managing inflation and supporting economic stability is the cash

rate, which influences borrowing costs, consumer spending, and investment. In this

period, the central challenge has been balancing inflation control with economic growth

and employment.

Cash Rate Changes and Their Rationale

Throughout 2022 and 2023, the RBA raised the cash rate multiple times, marking the

end of an extended period of near-zero interest rates initiated in response to the COVID- 19 pandemic. Beginning in May 2022, the RBA embarked on a series of rate hikes,

raising the cash rate from 0.1% to 4.1% by mid-2023. These increases were primarily

driven by rising inflation, which surged to over 7% in 2022, significantly above the RBA’s

target range of 2-3%. The global inflation surge, exacerbated by supply chain

disruptions, geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine war), and strong domestic

demand, necessitated a tightening of monetary policy.

The RBA’s objective was to curb demand-side inflation by reducing borrowing and

spending. Higher interest rates are designed to dampen consumption, lower demand for

housing, and reduce overall investment. However, this approach also risks slowing

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economic growth, increasing unemployment, and negatively impacting consumer

confidence.

Impact on Key Macroeconomic Indicators

1. Inflation:

The aggressive rate hikes had a notable impact on inflation. After peaking at

7.8% year-on-year in the December quarter of 2022, inflation began to moderate,

falling to around 5% by the September quarter of 2023. This decline in inflation

reflects the lagged effects of monetary tightening, where reduced demand begins

to ease price pressures. However, core inflation (excluding volatile items like fuel

and food) remained sticky, indicating that inflationary pressures were persistent in

some sectors, such as services and housing.

2. Unemployment:

The labour market remained resilient throughout the period of rate hikes, with

unemployment rates hovering between 3.5% and 4%. The tight labour market,

coupled with rising wage growth, presented a challenge for the RBA. While wage

increases helped households cope with higher costs of living, they also

contributed to inflationary pressures. However, by mid-2023, there were early

signs of softening in the labour market, with job vacancy rates declining slightly. If

unemployment were to rise significantly in the future, it could prompt the RBA to

reconsider its monetary stance.

3. GDP Growth:

Australia’s economic growth showed signs of slowing in response to the monetary

tightening. Quarterly GDP growth, which averaged 0.8% in 2022, decelerated to

about 0.4% by mid-2023. The higher cost of borrowing contributed to weaker

household consumption and reduced business investment. The housing market,

in particular, experienced a significant downturn, with property prices declining

due to reduced affordability. The slowdown in growth raised concerns about the

possibility of a mild recession, although Australia avoided a technical recession

during this period.

Should the RBA Make Further Changes?

Based on the latest macroeconomic indicators, the RBA faces a complex decision.

Inflation remains above target, but it is trending downwards. The risk of tightening too

much could trigger a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment, which would damage

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the broader economy. The slowdown in GDP growth and the weakening housing market

suggest that the economy is already feeling the effects of previous rate hikes.

Given this context, the RBA should be cautious about further rate increases. A pause in

rate hikes would allow more time for the full effects of earlier monetary tightening to

materialise. This approach would also provide room to assess whether inflation

continues to fall towards the target range without further slowing the economy. If inflation

persists above target, however, the RBA may need to consider additional, modest rate

increases to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched.

Conclusion

Since 2022, the RBA’s monetary policy has focused on combating high inflation through

aggressive rate hikes. These changes have successfully reduced inflation but have also

slowed economic growth and could threaten the labour market in the future. Moving

forward, the RBA should adopt a more measured approach, carefully balancing the need

for inflation control with the risks of stifling economic growth. A cautious pause in rate

hikes seems appropriate based on current data, with flexibility to adjust if inflationary

pressures persist.

Here are some tips and a checklist to help frame your report for Part 1.

TIPS

• Do not answer the prompt given to ChatGPT. You are not asked to write an essay.

Instead, you need to critically analyse the essay written by ChatGPT and report

your findings.

• Do not explain concepts or definitions of commonly used macroeconomic

indicators.

• Your policy and data sources should be national agencies, e.g., the Australian

Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Reserve Bank of Australia.

• Cite reliable sources to support your findings and include the full reference details

of those sources in the reference list at the end of your document (after Part 3).

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CHECKLIST

To ensure your critique addresses all relevant aspects, check your report against the

following checklist.

• Did you check and report whether ChatGPT considered all relevant changes in

the cash rate (the policy rate) made by the Australian central bank?

• Did you check and report whether the ChatGPT analysis considered all quarterly

data from 2022 to 2024 for the three key macroeconomic indicators identified in

Topic 1 and if the reported data values are correct? Did you check which

economic growth indicator ChatGPT reported and if it aligns with the

recommendation provided in Topic 1 for analysing economic growth for a single

country? Did you check which inflation indicator ChatGPT reported?

o We suggest you consult the appropriate national data sources to create

and include a table in your report that defines and details the appropriate

and correct quarterly data values from 2022 to 2024 for the three key

macroeconomic indicators. For consistency, round indicator values to one

decimal place. Remember to clearly indicate which data in the table you

are referring to in your writing.

• Did you check and report whether ChatGPT cited supporting sources in its

response?

• Did you check and report whether ChatGPT met the word limit for the essay as

specified in the prompt?

• Did you check and report whether ChatGPT wrote the essay in a format that

aligns with UQ expectations for research essays?

• Did you check and report whether ChatGPT’s conclusion that the Reserve Bank

of Australia’s pause in rate hikes is appropriate?

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Part 2: IS-LM Model (Around 350 words)

You must complete this part of the assessment task assuming a closed economy and

your allocated policy scenario, with the allocation indicated in Table 2 below.

Table 2

Policy Scenario Allocation

Last digit of your eight-digit student ID Policy scenario

0 or 1

Unchanged government expenditure, lower

taxes and a tighter monetary policy

2 or 3

Unchanged government expenditure, higher

taxes and a tighter monetary policy

4 or 5

Higher government expenditure, unchanged

taxes and a looser monetary policy

6 or 7

Lower government expenditure, unchanged

taxes and a looser monetary policy

8 or 9

Unchanged government expenditure, higher

unemployment benefits and a looser

monetary policy

PLEASE NOTE

• The allocation you must use for Part 2 of the research report is based on the last

digit of your complete student ID. So, for example, if your student ID is

44194358, then your allocated policy scenario for Part 2 is as follows: Unchanged

government expenditure, an increase in unemployment benefits and a looser

monetary policy.

• The number in your student email address (e.g., S4419435) is not your student

ID; it misses the last digit (i.e. 8 in this example). A 10-mark penalty will be

applied to your total assignment mark if you fail to follow the allocation rules for

Part 2.

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Your task is to model and report the following in around 350 words for your allocated

policy scenario (see page 7 for allocation):

• Illustrate and explain the expected short-run impact of your allocated fiscal- monetary mix, ceteris paribus (that is, holding other things equal), using the

appropriate IS-LM model framework for a closed economy.

Below are a few tips to consider when writing Part 2.

TIPS

• Part 2 does not require data collection.

• Revise Topics 7 and 8 before completing Part 2.

• You must include one graph to illustrate the short-run effect of your allocated

fiscal-monetary policy mix according to the closed-economy IS-LM model of

Topics 7 and 8.

Part 3: Mundell-Fleming Model (Around 350 words)

You must complete this part of the assessment task for your allocated country, with the

country allocation indicated in Table 3 below.

Table 3

Country Allocation

Last digit of your eight-digit student ID Country

0 or 1 Canada

2 or 3 New Zealand

4 or 5 Norway

6 or 7 Sweden

8 or 9 Switzerland

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PLEASE NOTE

• The country you must use for Part 3 of the research report is based on the last

digit of your complete student ID. For example, if your student ID is 44194358,

then your allocated country for Part 3 is Switzerland.

• The number in your student email address (e.g., S4419435) is not your student

ID; it misses the last digit (i.e. 8 in this example). A 10-mark penalty will be

applied to your total assignment mark if you fail to follow the country allocation

rules for Part 3.

Your task is to research, model and report the following in around 350 words for your

allocated country (see page 8 for allocation):

• Determine whether your allocated country’s overall monetary policy stance for 2024

was looser (expansionary) or tighter (contractionary). Explain the monetary policy

stance by referring to the main changes in your allocated country’s policy rate since

the beginning of 2024.

• Illustrate and explain the expected short-run impact of your allocated country’s

monetary policy of 2024, ceteris paribus (that is, holding other things equal), using

the appropriate Mundell-Fleming (IS*-LM*) model. Assume your allocated country is

a small open economy with free capital flows.

Below are a few tips to consider when writing Part 3.

TIPS

• Part 3 does not require collecting data for economic indicators.

• Revise Topic 9 before completing Part 3.

• Your monetary policy source should be the website of your allocated country’s

monetary policy authority, that is, its official central bank.

• Cite the relevant sources in Part 3 and include the full reference details of those

sources in the reference list at the end of your document (after Part 3).

• You must include one graph illustrating the short-run effect of your country’s

monetary policy according to the relevant Mundell-Fleming model of Topic 9.

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Additional Requirements

Please adhere to the following requirements when compiling your Impact Comparison

research report. Penalties will apply, in line with the marking rubric, if you fail to follow

these instructions.

PLEASE NOTE

You must use the research report template on Learn.UQ > Assessment > Impact

Comparison (Research Report) > Impact Comparison - Template. The template includes

a cover sheet. Complete and include this cover sheet with your submission. Do not start

your research report on the cover page. Instead, the first page of your research report

should be the page after the coversheet (as in the template).

• Formatting requirements:

o Word document

o Font type and size: Arial 11

o Line space: 1.5

o Word limit: Maximum of 1,000 words

• Referencing style: References and citations must be in APA 7th referencing

style.

o Consult the APA 7th referencing style guide.

o You can use direct quotes, provided the total number of quoted words is

20 or less in the research report.

• Turnitin:

o The Turnitin similarity percentage of your report must be below 15%.

• Word count:

o The word count excludes the cover sheet, title, section headings, short

tables, figures, table and figure headings, figure notes, and the reference

list.

o The word count includes your writing and in-text citations.

• General:

o Do not use footnotes or endnotes.

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• Marking rubric:

o Consult the marking rubric to guide your assessment planning and writing.

• Tables and graphs:

o Your research report (Part 1, 2 and 3 combined) may include a maximum

of four (4) tables or figures. You can use a mixture of tables and graphs,

provided the total number is no more than four.

o You must produce your own figures rather than cut and paste them from

other sources.

o Insert figures as images (pictures) rather than Excel objects in your

document.

REFERENCING TIPS

• If you directly quote the original content word for word, it must be in quotation

marks.

• When to paraphrase and when to quote? Refer to the Academic Integrity Modules

(AIM) modules and the Write, Cite and Submit module. This guide from the

University of Adelaide may also be helpful to you.

• Only use sources written in English.

• You must reference sources for your text and tables.

• You must cite and reference sources even when paraphrasing the original content.

• Having more in-text citations and references will reduce the number of words for the

main body. But, having too few in-text citations and references will lessen the

report’s credibility. Therefore, you need to balance the two.

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SUBMITTING YOUR ASSESSMENT

• Your research report must be submitted as a Microsoft Word document through

Turnitin at Learn.UQ > Assessment > Impact Comparison (Research Report) >

Impact Comparison. To gain access to the Impact Comparison submission link, you

must first agree to the Academic Integrity pledge available at Learn.UQ >

Assessment > Impact Comparison (Research Report) > Impact Comparison -

Academic Integrity Pledge.

• While most instances of plagiarism are unintentional (for example, forgetting to

close a quotation mark), the Turnitin originality report will reveal any form of

plagiarism (intentional or unintentional) and the use of Artificial Intelligence tools.

Your research report should have a Turnitin similarity index value of 15% or

less. From the originality report, the marker will check whether any part of your

research report is potentially plagiarised from other sources, which could result in

mark penalties, as shown in the marking rubric. Thus, carefully review the originality

report before your final submission.

• You can resubmit your essay multiple times until the due time. However, from the

third resubmission onwards, Turnitin will only release the Similarity Report 24 hours

after your resubmission.

• After uploading your research report, click the Submit to Turnitin button. Then,

download your digital receipt in your Assignment inbox to confirm successful

submission (refer to the Turnitin student guide). No digital receipt, no

submission.

• The deadline for submission is based on the time your assessment was

successfully uploaded on Turnitin, as recorded by Turnitin, not the time you tried

to upload it.

• Many students fail to meet the deadline because they have internet connection

problems on their side, but they mistake it as an IT problem of UQ. If UQ has any

internet connection problems, it will keep a record of it.

• The only way to guarantee that you meet the deadline is to submit your research

report well before the deadline.