EE820-EE988 ASSESSMENT

OPERATIONS PLANNING & FINANCIAL FORECAST FOR SCOTWIND SITE

You have been allocated a zone in the upcoming ScotWind offshore wind leasing round. Your assignment is to
develop a credible operational plan for your site, and create a financial forecast of the site performance for the
assumed project lifetime. You will need to draw on a wide range of data, information & modelling to support this.

The final deliverable will be a report summarising your findings. This will be used by the developer to inform their
CfD bidding strategy, and eventually the final investment decision.

The MyPlace page contains all the basic information required to complete and pass this assignment. However
students may find that in order to attain more detailed analysis and results, that other public sources of information
such as academic papers, industry reports, & public data sets may be used to enhance the quality of the report.


SITE DESIGN (10%)
It is expected that you will define an offshore wind farm based on the characteristics of your allocated ScotWind
zone (see MyPlace for zone allocation). High level characteristics of your proposed offshore wind farm should be
defined, such as proposed turbine rating, number of turbines, total site capacity, and proposed location of
operations and maintenance (O&M) base. You are not required do a full or detailed resource assessment exercise
as part of this. However some analysis of the wind speed data provided may be helpful in this task. You may also
find useful information in the ‘Supporting Documents’ folder on MyPlace.

Expected outputs:
Wind farm capacity, number of turbines & turbine ratings
Service base location
An estimate of the average annual energy production in MWh per year
Justification for each decision, or any assumptions



INITIAL FINANCIAL NET REVENUE FORECAST (10%)

You are required to generate an initial revenue forecast based on the available knowledge before the CfD is
secured. The revenue forecast should cover an initial period of 15 years with CfD. During this period some
assumptions will need to be made about several inputs such as CfD strike price, assumed first year of operation,
the indexation, the site availability performance and the annual OpEx.
This is followed by a number of assumed further operational years where the capture price (either a bilateral power
purchase agreement or traded energy price as part of a trading portfolio) has to be estimated. The duration of this
assumed post-subsidy period should be decided and evidenced in the report.
For this first annual OpEx estimate, you have been given access to the historic average annual OpEx performance
of two sites. This can be used to estimate OpEx of the turbines at your site location.
Site 1, operational for 10 years, with 140 turbines rated at 3.6MW each and an approximate CTV travel time of 2
hours from wind farm to the operations base. This sites annual average OpEx is 73.40k euros per MW per year.
This site is serviced by a fleet of 4 CTVs.
Site 2, operational for 2 years, with 84 turbines rated at 7MW each and an approximate CTV travel time of 45
minutes from wind farm to the operations base. This sites annual average OpEx is 51.50k euros per MW per year.
This site is serviced by a fleet of 2 CTVs.
OpEx figures above are based on 2019 values of money.
Expected outputs:
Net Revenue forecast for CfD period
Net Revenue forecast for post-CfD period
Justification for each decision, or any assumptions



SITE ACCESSIBILITY ANALYSIS (30%)

You are required to analyse the met-ocean conditions on your site. The goal of this analysis is to understand any
potential impacts of the met-ocean conditions on the site performance. This is a two-part process. In part 1, you
are required to increase your knowledge of the met-ocean data and extract some key figures to summarise the
met-ocean conditions. In part 2 you will use this improved understanding to select a suitable vessel strategy for the
site. You will combine the vessel performance and met ocean conditions to assess the accessibility of the site.






Accessibility Part 1 – Understanding the Site Met-Ocean Conditions
In the first part, you will increase your understanding of the met-ocean conditions by creating a set of figures
(graphs) which summarise the met-ocean data. These figures should include (but are not limited to): a histogram
of significant wave height (Hs), a histogram of wind speed at hub height, and a time series figure of Hs on a
seasonal basis.

Expected outputs:
Graph: Histogram of significant wave height (Hs)
Graph: Histogram of wind speed at hub height
Graph: Time series of Hs on a seasonal basis
Commentary on the met-ocean conditions and their likely impact on operations

Accessibility Part 2 – Vessel Selection
In the second part, you are required to make a selection of vessel type to carry out daily works on the site. The
primary calculation in this section will be a comparison of the time series Hs values and the assumed crew transfer
capability of the chosen vessel. This can be used to derive a total number of access hours per year, which can be
expressed as an accessibility %.
This analysis should also include an estimate of typical transit times between the O&M base and the wind farm.

Expected outputs:
Choice of vessel or other access system
Total number of access hours (hours per year, and % access)
Estimate of transit time from O&M base to wind farm
Justification for each decision, or any assumptions









REQUIRED NUMBER OF SITE VISITS AND TIME BASED AVAILABILTIY (20%)

As part of the operations planning you are required to assess the likely number of required visits per turbine per
year, typical repair time, and time-based availability performance. As a starting point, you have been given the
following technical data from a wind turbine OEM for a turbine rated at 3.6MW.
Average annual failure rate: 5 failures per turbine per annum (not including manual resets)
Mean repair time (excluding weather risk): 0.5 days

Expected outputs:
Total number of expected turbine visits per year
Estimated repair time
Time based availability
Commentary on the met-ocean conditions and their likely impact on operations
Revised OpEx & Availability




REVISED NET REVENUE FORECAST (5%)

At this stage you have the opportunity to revise your net revenue forecast with any new information provided by
your analysis.

Expected outputs:
Revised Net Revenue forecast for CfD period
Revised Net Revenue forecast for post-CfD period
Justification for each decision, or any assumptions






DISCOUNTED NET REVENUE FORECAST (5%)

Calculate the annual discounted net revenue (assume a single investor), and the sum of these totals. When
choosing a discount factor, explain any assumptions you are making about the investor.

Expected outputs:
Discounted Net Revenue forecast for CfD period
Discounted Net Revenue forecast for post-CfD period
Summation of discounted net revenue for project lifetime
Justification for each decision, or any assumptions



SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (15%)

Analyse how sensitive your results are to the model input assumptions. This can be done for the full range of
model inputs, or can be targeted at inputs which you see as being of high importance.

Expected outputs:
A set of figures or tables summarising the results of the sensitivity analysis on the project performance


KEY PROJECT FINDINGS (5%)

Provide a set of overall findings of your analysis in concise format.

Expected outputs:
A set of bullet points at the end of the report, stating the key findings of the analysis



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