MATH 459 Test 2 Apr. 13, 2018 NAME (please print legibly): Your University ID Number: • No books, collaboration or access to outside material is allowed, with two exceptions. Each student may bring one sheet of notes. Each student may bring in a calculator such as the TI-83 Plus and the TI-84 Plus family, allowed for use on the PSAT, the SAT Subject Tests, Math Level 1 and 2 Tests, AP Calculus exam and ACT Test. Please show all your work. You may use back pages if necessary. You may not receive full credit for a correct answer if there is no work shown. The Black-Scholes formulas are Ceuro(S, t) = SN(d1)−Ke−r(T−t)N(d2), P euro(S, t) = Ke−r(T−t)N(−d2)− SN(−d1),where d1 = lnS + (r + 1 2 σ2)(T − t)− lnK σ √ T − t , d2 = lnS + (r − 1 2 σ2)(T − t)− lnK σ √ T − t N(z) = 1√ 2pi ∫ z −∞ e− x2 2 dx QUESTION VALUE SCORE 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 TOTAL 60 1 1. (10 points) An asset has value S0 = $60 at t = 0, and will have unknown value S(T ) at time T . A call option with strike K = $50 is currently (t = 0) selling for C0 = $11, and the discount factor for the period 0 to T is e−rT = 0.98 = 98/100. The risk-free rate is r. a) Consider the portfolio obtained by selling (short) one unit of the asset at t = 0, buying one call option, and investing the present value of the strike K in a bank at the risk-free rate. Show there is an arbitrage opportunity. Give all actions at t = T . b) If the call option price is instead C0 = $10, does the arbitrage opportunity still exist? c) If the call option price is instead C0 = $12, does the arbitrage opportunity still exist? Solution: a) The strike K is cash that may need to be spent at t = T , so “the present value of the strike” is Ke−rT = 50(98/100) = 49, the strike discounted to present. a0) At t = 0, the cashflow is +S0 (income from shorting the asset), −C0 (buy call option), and −Ke−rT (deposit present value of strike in bank). The total cash flow at t = 0 is S0 − C0 −Ke−rT = 60− 11− 50(98/100) = 49− 49 = 0. aT ) At t = T , withdraw (Ke −rT )/e−rT = +K = 50 from bank, reacquire and return asset. If S(T ) ≥ K, reacquire the asset by exercising the call option, spending K: at time T the cash flow is +K −K = +50− 50 = 0. If S(T ) < K, reacquire the asset by purchasing on the spot market, spending S(T ): at time T the cash flow is +K − S(T ) = +50− S(T ) > 0. The cash flow at t = T is ≥ 0, and there is a positive probability of a positive payoff. Since there is no outlay of cash at t = 0 and a positive probability of income at t = T , there is an arbitrage opportunity (“type B”) b) If the call option price is C0 = 10, then the cash flow at t = 0 becomes 60− 10− 49 = 1. There is an immediate payoff at t = 0 and a positive probability of income at t = T , so there is an arbitrage opportunity (“type A”) c) If the call option price is C0 = 12, then the cash flow at t = 0 becomes 60− 12− 49 = −1. There is an expenditure at t = 0 and no guaranteed income at t = T , so there is not an arbitrage opportunity. 1
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