ECS7005P Coursework 2

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Risk and Decision-Making for Data Science and AI
Semester B, 2021
Coursework 2
Instructions
This is an individual coursework. All submissions will be done via QMplus. Please use
the Coursework 2 link under the Assessment Tab on the module to select and submit
answers. All the answers are multiple choice.
Submission Deadline: April 2nd, 2021 11:59 PM.

Part A: Influence Diagram
It is December 2020. A band is scheduling their next concert for June 2021. They are
deciding whether to confirm their venue as there is a long waiting list for this particular
venue. If they do not book it, the concert cannot go ahead. The venue costs £25000
to reserve and this cost cannot be refunded for any reason once confirmed. However,
it is uncertain whether there will be social distancing restrictions. The government will
do one of the following: ban large gatherings altogether (.3 probability), restrict the
number of people that can attend the concert (.5), or allow full concerts (.2). If the
concert is allowed to go ahead, they expect to make £250000 from the ticket sales,
but if there is a restriction on capacity due to government policy, they will only make a
quarter of this amount in ticket sales.
Create an influence diagram in AgenaRisk based on the information above and
answer the following multiple-choice questions online about it.

Question 1 (5 Marks)
Select the type of node for each variable listed:
Venue Cost
a. Chance
b. Decision
c. Utility
Pandemic Restrictions
a. Chance
b. Decision
c. Utility

ECS7005P Coursework 2

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Ticket Sales
a. Chance
b. Decision
c. Utility
Total Utility
a. Chance
b. Decision
c. Utility
Confirm Venue
a. Chance
b. Decision
c. Utility
Concert
a. Chance
b. Decision
c. Utility

Question 2 (15 marks)
Answer the following about the node you have made for “Ticket Sales.” (5 marks)
i. What is the node type?
a. Labelled
b. Boolean
c. Continuous Interval
d. Ranked
e. Integer Interval
f. Discrete Real

ii. What is the expression that should be entered in the NPT for the “Ticket Sales”
node? Drag and drop the correct expressions into the NPT provided. (10 marks)
Concert False True
Pandemic
Restrictions
None
Decreased
Capacity
Concerts
Banned
None
Decreased
Capacity
Concerts
Banned
Expressions

Available Choices for NPT: Arithmetic(0), Arithmetic(0), Arithmetic(0), Arithmetic(0),
Arithmetic(250000), Arithmetic(62500)
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Question 3 (15 marks)
Answer the following about the node you have made for “Concert.”
i. What is the node type? (5 marks)
a. Labelled
b. Boolean
c. Continuous Interval
d. Ranked
e. Integer Interval
f. Discrete Real

ii. What is the expression that should be entered in the NPT for the “Concert”
node? Drag and drop the correct values into the NPT provided. (10 marks)
Confirm
Venue
No Yes
Pandemic
Restrictions
None
Decreased
Capacity
Concerts
Banned
None
Decreased
Capacity
Concerts
Banned
False
True

Available choices for NPT: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

Question 4 (5 marks)
Using the Hybrid Influence Diagram Analyser, determine the optimal decision for the
band. What is the total utility of this decision?
a. 225000
b. 37500
c. -25000
d. 56250
Part B: Risk Calculations
A recent outbreak of a virus has been traced to a local hotel with attendees at a
particular large conference there believed to be at especially great risk.
Epidemiologists have conducted a survey of recent visitors to the hotel with the
following results:
Virus No Virus
Conference Attendee 200 1000
Not a Conference
Attendee
30 1300
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Question 5 (5 marks)
What is the relative risk increase of contracting the virus for conference attendees
compared to people who did not attend the conference?
a. 639%
b. 14.4%
c. 83.3%
d. 97%

Question 6 (5 marks)
What is the absolute risk increase of contracting the virus for conference attendees
compared to non-attendees?
a. 639%
b. 14.4%
c. 83.3%
d. 97%

Part C: Statistical Paradoxes
Question 7 (25 marks)
A study into the effectiveness of two different treatment procedures (A and B) has
been reported on patients suffering with a particular Disease which can be either
chronic or acute. The results were:

Treatment
Type
Disease
Type
Patient Outcome
Success Failure
Treatment A

Acute 18 2
Chronic 32 48
Treatment B Acute 64 16
Chronic 4 16

i. Which treatment has the better success rate overall? (7 marks)
a. Treatment A
b. Treatment B

ii. Which treatment is better for patients with the acute form of the Disease? (7
marks)
a. Treatment A
b. Treatment B


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iii. Which treatment is better for patients with the chronic form of the Disease? (7
marks)
a. Treatment A
b. Treatment B

iv. What type of statistical paradox exist in this data? (4 marks)
a. Berkson Paradox
b. Simpson Paradox
c. Lindley Paradox
d. Accuracy Paradox


Part D: Utility and Decision Making
Question 8 (25 marks)
Sandra attends a circus and is presented with the following rules of Shell Game.
• A bet cost £5.
• You can only pick 1 shell from 3 shells.
• If the ball is under your chosen shell, you win £20.

i. What is the total expected utility of Sandra decision to play the Shell Game?
(10 marks)
a. 5
b. -3.33
c. 1.67
d. -5

ii. If Sandra values the excitement of playing the game as having a utility of £7.
What is the total expected utility of Sandra decision to play the Shell Game?
(10 marks)
a. 1.33
b. 7.33
c. 2
d. 8.66

iii. Should Sandra play the Shell Game? (5 marks)
• Total expected utility of not playing = 0

a. Yes
b. No



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